In the first quarter of 2000, real GDP growth fell from a knockout 7.3% to a meager 1.0%, sparking fears of recession. However, in the second quarter, growth bounced back sharply to 6.4% and most everyone once again breathed a sign of relief. That was premature. By the next quarter, GDP went negative and really never breached 3% again until the second quarter of 2003. The possible parallel to the current situation should be obvious. Even if we get a blowout GDP number for this quarter as a rebound from last (estimated as high as 5% or more), that doesnâ€™t mean that [tag]higher interest rates[/tag], [tag]higher commodity prices[/tag], a persistent[tag] oil price[/tag] shock, and a slow motion collapse in the [tag]housing sector[/tag] wonâ€™t bring a repeat of the slow-growth 2001 scenario â€“ and validate the [tag]yield curve[/tag] inversions signaling trouble ahead.